Introduction -
Our
2006 Profile
Bookies Fav - A Long-term hardened
punter pushed this point for years.
If the bookies send it out as favourite then its good enough for me to tip in
tipping competitions ... no thinking needed. Well we are testing this theory in
2006.
Home
Sides
- Is a trusted and very simplistic tipping method. Here we measure the
success of the theory that home sides have an advantage. When a team is
traveling interstate irrespective of ground they will be deemed to be the away
side, unless both teams are traveling interstate. If two teams are
playing on a neutral ground then the team sent out favourite by the bookmakers
will be the pick.
Ladder - Simple the team with more
premiership points on the ladder becomes the tip. Again, assuming two teams are
equal points on the ladder the team sent out favourite by the bookmakers will
be the pick. * Round 1 the previous years finishing position shall be used.
Last Week
- Will be the team on the longest winning streak or the shortest losing
streak. * Round 1 the previous years win/loss streak shall be used.
The Professor - Is a combination of all
of the above factors, plus individual strike rates against current opponents.
The Computer - There are only 3 things
that are important in football .... statistics, statistics and more statistics.
Our computer uses an "Elo Rating" system to rate each team. Ever week
it them makes slight adjustments allowing for the following reasons
1/ Venue Bias - Statistically does one team have a better past performance at a
particular ground.
2/ Interstate Travel - Statistically does a teams performance alter by traveling
interstate.
3/ Injury Factor - Statistically do certain teams have an over reliance on
particular players.
4/ Ladder Position - Statistically does this make a difference.
5/ Past Results - Statistically does one team have winning edge over its
opponent.
6/ Winning/Losing Sequence - Statistically does one team follow any particular
trend.
Please note ... ELO Rating System was devised by Professor Arpad Elo for the
game of chess. However, we have modified it for our owns purposes to suit the
game of Australian Rules Football.
