Introduction
Every week during
the football season millions of dollars are wagered on the outcome of
eight games of AFL football. For this reason, I decided to take a look at
the main products on the market. I will give you an understanding of each
bet type, then focus in on our recommended strategies for investing your
money wisely. From the outset I must stress I have only chosen the main
products. If I have missed your favorite product, send me an e-mail and I
will do some personal analysis for you .
Footy Win is a basic but popular product. The aim is to
pick the correct winning team within a set provided point margin. This
point margin is set by Tabcorp for every game
thought out the whole season. It is important to
note that you are permitted to cover more than one point margin, assuming
you place the minimum bet of $1.00 on each selection. This theoretically
means you can cover every possible outcome for an outlay of $10.00. The point
margins are as follows:
|
1 |
Home team by: |
0-12 points |
6 |
Away team by: |
0-12 points |
|
2 |
Home team by: |
13-36 points |
7 |
Away team by: |
13-36 points |
|
3 |
Home team by: |
37-60 points |
8 |
Away team by: |
37-60 points |
|
4 |
Home team by: |
61-72 points |
9 |
Away team by: |
61-72 points |
|
5 |
Home team by: |
73-+ points |
10 |
Away team by: |
73-+ points |
Strategy
From the outset I must say that this in not a product I
favor. Sure, I
can appreciate its simplicity, however I have three main objections.
Firstly, unlike a lot of other forms of betting, you must not only pick the
winner but you must pick the correct margin, a twofold bet type. The
margin component is my main concern. I suggest margin betting has too many
uncontrollable factors, i.e. weather, ground conditions, etc. Secondly and
more importantly, I always stress the importance of seeking value and being
aware of deductions prior to paying dividends. The product provider
Tabcorp deduct a set percentage or profit margin prior to paying dividends. Thirdly and equally as important, this is not a fixed form of betting.
Therefore you have no way of knowing your exact payout prior to the event. In summary I would suggest you look at investing your money in other
products.
Footy Tip 8 is a self explanatory product. The aim is for
you to pick all eight winners. Important to note with this product is that
you
have the facility to couple selections, bearing in mind that each
selection has a multiplying factor based around the minimum investment of
$5.00. In other words you could cover both possible outcomes in one or all
games. (see table below )
|
Number
of Selections |
Total Cost |
|
8 |
$5 |
|
9 |
$10 |
|
10 |
$20 |
|
11 |
$40 |
|
12 |
$80 |
|
13 |
$160 |
|
14 |
$320 |
|
15 |
$640 |
|
16 |
$1280 |
Strategy
A lot of my concerns with Footy-win are duplicated with Footy Tip 8. However, again I stress the need for flexibility and
I am prepared to judge
each product on its individual merits. The key to this product is
patience. Only use this product on certain favorable rounds. Here I recommend you see
my free tips section. Wait for a round in which you
have multiple bankers and they are the less well supported teams of the AFL,
even to the extent that some are non-Victorian interstate sides. Then, in
the other games, couple both possible outcomes. Here we are seeking value
and removing emotion from our investing habits, something most punters don’t
do.
For example...
Banker List A:
(1) Nth Melbourne (2) Sydney Swans (3)
Western Bulldogs.
Banker List B:
(1) Essendon (2) Richmond (3) St Kilda.
I
much prefer Banker List A, an attempt to take advantage of the emotional dollar
due to the smaller supporter bases of those teams.
Here I review two products as one. The aim is exactly
the same, apart from one obvious difference, you must pick the winners of
the selected games combined with the set provided point margin. The difference
is that in Footy-Double you have two pre-selected games, whereas in
Footy-Quad you have
four pre-selected games. Here it is worth noting
that Tabcorp pre-selects the games. The point margin is a fixed point
differential set by Tabcorp for every game thought out the whole season.
Importantly, here you are permitted to cover multiple combinations with
a cost factor of $0.50 per combination. This theoretically means
that in Footy-Double you could cover every possible combination for an outlay of
$112.50 and in Footy-Quad could cover every possible combination for an
outlay of $25,312.50. The point margins are as follows:
|
1 |
Home team by: |
0-12 points |
9 |
Away team by: |
0-12 points |
|
2 |
Home team by: |
13-24 points |
10 |
Away team by: |
13-24 points |
|
3 |
Home team by: |
25-36 points |
11 |
Away team by: |
25-36 points |
|
4 |
Home team by: |
37-48 points |
12 |
Away team by: |
37-48 points |
|
5 |
Home team by: |
49-60 points |
13 |
Away team by: |
49-60 points |
|
6 |
Home team by: |
61-72 points |
14 |
Away team by: |
61-72 points |
|
7 |
Home team by: |
73-+ points |
15 |
Away team by: |
73-+ points |
|
8 |
DRAW |
Strategy
With both these products you should be aware of the
potential time frames involved before receiving any payout. Here at
Talking Football warning bells start ringing when payout dividends are very
large. Why do I say this? A payout dividend is a direct
reflection of how many people actually picked the correct combination. The
higher the dividend, the smaller the number of people that correctly picked
that combination. It is not uncommon for the dividends of these products to be in
the hundreds or even thousands of dollars. This tells us that they are not
easy products to get a payout.
Let's for the sake of this
example assume the dividend is completely accurate. A dividend of $100.00 theoretically means you could have large runs without a
payout, a very sobering prospect. Even if you are the best tipster in the
world and can achieve unheard of overlays of around 20%, a season without
a payout should not be uncommon. In summary, I suggest that unless you
feel guilty about not paying enough taxes, you should leave this product
well alone.
Head to Head the simplest form of all football betting, all you
have to do is pick the winner of the game. It is important not to let the product providers cloud the issue here and tempt you into
margin betting.
Strategy
It is truly amazing how sometimes in life, the simplest
can also be the best . Here at Talking Football I could write a book
on this product by itself. However, for this exercise I will only
summarise my main recommendations.
1/ Develop a solid selection method based on common
sense selections.
2/ Learn how to frame a market. This is a must so that you can
identify value. Sure, you can’t eat value, but if your selection method
is half reasonable you should be able to minimise your losses.
3/ Learn to remove your emotions from investing, even
to the extent of not backing your team. Remember, there are 7 other games. Sometimes emotion can override common sense and
your judgement can become clouded.
4/ Be prepared to accept odds-on prices. A payout at
odds of 4/5 is better than no pay out at all.
5/ Learn to be patient. You do not have to bet on every
game or every week. Wait for a favorable set of circumstances to arise.
6/ Never invest your whole bank on the outcome of just
one game. Don’t let the war be decided by the outcome of one battle.
In summary, I recommend that this product command most of your time and investment dollars in
football betting.