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Introduction
Every week during the football season millions of dollars are wagered on the outcome of eight games of AFL football. For this reason, I decided to take a look at the main products on the market. I will give you an understanding of each bet type, then focus in on our recommended strategies for investing your money wisely. From the outset I must stress I have only chosen the main products. If I have missed your favorite product, send me an e-mail and I will do some personal analysis for you .

Footy Win is a basic but popular product. The aim is to pick the correct winning team within a set provided point margin. This point margin is set by Tabcorp for every game thought out the whole season. It is important to note that you are permitted to cover more than one point margin, assuming you place the minimum bet of $1.00 on each selection. This theoretically means you can cover every possible outcome for an outlay of $10.00. The point margins are as follows:

1

Home team by:

0-12 points

6

Away team by:

0-12 points

2

Home team by:

13-36 points

7

Away team by:

13-36 points

3

Home team by:

37-60 points

8

Away team by:

37-60 points

4

Home team by:

61-72 points

9

Away team by:

61-72 points

5

Home team by:

73-+ points

10

Away team by:

73-+ points

Strategy

From the outset I must say that this in not a product I favor. Sure, I can appreciate its simplicity, however I have three main objections. Firstly, unlike a lot of other forms of betting, you must not only pick the winner but you must pick the correct margin, a twofold bet type. The margin component is my main concern. I suggest margin betting has too many uncontrollable factors, i.e. weather, ground conditions, etc. Secondly and more importantly, I always stress the importance of seeking value and being aware of deductions prior to paying dividends. The product provider Tabcorp deduct a set percentage or profit margin prior to paying dividends. Thirdly and equally as important, this is not a fixed form of betting. Therefore you have no way of knowing your exact payout prior to the event. In summary I would suggest you look at investing your money in other products.

Footy Tip 8 is a self explanatory product. The aim is for you to pick all eight winners. Important to note with this product is that you have the facility to couple selections, bearing in mind that each selection has a multiplying factor based around the minimum investment of $5.00. In other words you could cover both possible outcomes in one or all games. (see table below )

Number of Selections

Total Cost

8

$5

9

$10

10

$20

11

$40

12

$80

13

$160

14

$320

15

$640

16

$1280

Strategy

A lot of my concerns with Footy-win are duplicated with Footy Tip 8. However, again I stress the need for flexibility and I am prepared to judge each product on its individual merits. The key to this product is patience. Only use this product on certain favorable rounds. Here I recommend you see my free tips section.  Wait for a round in which you have multiple bankers and they are the less well supported teams of the AFL, even to the extent that some are non-Victorian interstate sides. Then, in the other games, couple both possible outcomes. Here we are seeking value and removing emotion from our investing habits, something most punters don’t do. For example... 

Banker List A:

(1) Nth Melbourne (2) Sydney Swans (3) Western Bulldogs.

Banker List B:

(1) Essendon (2) Richmond (3) St Kilda.

I much prefer Banker List A, an attempt to take advantage of the emotional dollar due to the smaller supporter bases of those teams.

Here I review two products as one. The aim is exactly the same, apart from one obvious difference, you must pick the winners of the selected games combined with the set provided point margin. The difference is that in Footy-Double you have two pre-selected games, whereas in Footy-Quad you have four pre-selected games. Here it is worth noting that Tabcorp pre-selects the games. The point margin is a fixed point differential set by Tabcorp for every game thought out the whole season. Importantly, here you are permitted to cover multiple combinations with a cost factor of  $0.50 per combination. This theoretically means that in Footy-Double you could cover every possible combination for an outlay of $112.50 and in Footy-Quad could cover every possible combination for an outlay of  $25,312.50. The point margins are as follows:

1

Home team by:

0-12 points

9

Away team by:

0-12 points

2

Home team by:

13-24 points

10

Away team by:

13-24 points

3

Home team by:

25-36 points

11

Away team by:

25-36 points

4

Home team by:

37-48 points

12

Away team by:

37-48 points

5

Home team by:

49-60 points

13

Away team by:

49-60 points

6

Home team by:

61-72 points

14

Away team by:

61-72 points

7

Home team by:

73-+ points

15

Away team by:

73-+ points

8

DRAW

Strategy

With both these products you should be aware of the potential time frames involved before receiving any payout. Here at Talking Football warning bells start ringing when payout dividends are very large. Why do I say this? A payout dividend is a direct reflection of how many people actually picked the correct combination. The higher the dividend, the smaller the number of people that correctly picked that combination. It is not uncommon for the dividends of  these products to be in the hundreds or even thousands of dollars. This tells us that they are not easy products to get a payout.

Let's for the sake of this example assume the dividend is completely accurate. A dividend of $100.00 theoretically means you could have large runs without a payout, a very sobering prospect. Even if you are the best tipster in the world and can achieve unheard of overlays of around 20%, a season without a payout should not be uncommon. In summary, I suggest that unless you feel guilty about not paying enough taxes, you should leave this product well alone. 

Head to Head the simplest form of all football betting, all you have to do is pick the winner of the game. It is important not to let the product providers cloud the issue here and tempt you into margin betting.

Strategy

It is truly amazing how sometimes in life, the simplest can also be the best . Here at Talking Football I could write a book on this product by itself. However, for this exercise I will only summarise my main recommendations.

1/ Develop a solid selection method based on common sense selections.

2/ Learn how to frame a market. This is a must so that you can identify value. Sure, you can’t eat value, but if your selection method is half reasonable you should be able to minimise your losses.

3/ Learn to remove your emotions from investing, even to the extent of not backing your team. Remember, there are 7 other games. Sometimes emotion can override common sense and your judgement can become clouded.

4/ Be prepared to accept odds-on prices. A payout at odds of 4/5 is better than no pay out at all.

5/ Learn to be patient. You do not have to bet on every game or every week. Wait for a favorable set of circumstances to arise.

6/ Never invest your whole bank on the outcome of just one game. Don’t let the war be decided by the outcome of one battle.

In summary, I recommend that this product command most of your time and investment dollars in football betting.


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