[Tippaz]

GEELONG
The reigning premiers deserve to go into the new season as favourites. Their comfortable 119pt win over Port Adelaide was a Grand Final record margin. They scooped nearly every award, and will go down as one of the greatest teams in club history. This team has got some serious stats power, but unfortunately, all the good players are going to be expensive. Not many bargains around here. All-Australian CHB Matthew Egan has not recovered from his foot injury and will miss the 1st half of the year (I have left him out of their starting lineup).
FB – Hunt, Scarlett, Milburn
HB – Mackie, Harley, Enright
C – (Ling), Bartel, Kelly
HF – Chapman, Mooney, S.Johnson
FF – Stokes, Lonergan, Hawkins
R – Ottens, Corey, Ablettjr
i/c – Blake, Selwood, Wojcinski, Byrnes
big guns: The ever reliable Darren Milburn was finally named All-Australian. He has been a top fantasy pick for the last 5 years, and probably too consistent for his own good. The 30yr old defender wins a lot of junk ball chipping around the backline, and often plays as a loose man. He’s also very effective with his disposals. 23yr old Andrew Mackie found his niche on the halfback flank last year and stepped up. He finds a lot of uncontested marks and loose footy around the backline too. This year, he’s been classified as a back, which makes him a formidable buy. Brownlow Medalist Jimmy Bartel had the biggest year of stats I’ve ever seen scoring 2288pts from 20 games (average 114.40ppg). He is the ultimate stat machine who greatly benefits from not being tagged. Unfortunately, his dramatically high scores have made him the most expensive player in history, which means he offers very little value for money. Wait until he drops 100k before you buy. Believe it or not, Joel Corey was 1 of 2 players to outscore Bartel by collecting 2290pts from 22 games (average 104.09ppg). He is even less likely to get tagged, and consistently racks up 25-30 possessions without anyone noticing. Corey’s price is significantly cheaper than Bartel, and he would be a smarter choice to start off with. MVP Award winner Gary Ablett jr reached stellar heights as a fully qualified fantasy big gun by scoring 2168pts from 22 games (average 98.55ppg). He has the curse of drawing the opposition’s no.1 tagger each week, but his improved fitness levels enable him to outrun those nasty scraggers. He is very prolific in possessions, tackles, hardball gets, goals, and hardly ever misses games. Ex-Tiger Brad Ottens finally proved his worth by having a great year, and was an instrumental player in the finals series. His 1559pts from 19 games (average 82.05ppg) made him one of the highest scoring players in the ruck catergory. The 28yr old ruckman has lifted his workrate around the ground, whilst becoming more dangerous at stoppages. Everyone knows Paul Chapman loves a stat. The hardnut midfielder has once again been misclassified as a forward, yet will inevitably deliver midfield stats. He plays forward/wing, and basically clocks up stats in every form. He normally averages 100ppg, so expect him to be a popular fantasy pick. The enigmatic Steve Johnson capped off 2007 with a Norm Smith Medal. He’s another half-forward-flank who can deliver midfield stats + kick goals. He was also the no.1 player in the competition for goal assists, and made All-Australian despite missing 6 games. In pre-season, he recently booted 6 goals against Melbourne in a Nab Cup match.
hot prospect: Tom Hawkins has added some muscle to his 197cm frame over summer, and is expected to be a 1st team regular. The 19yr old goalsquare behemoth is potentially another Jonathon Brown in the making. His stats will obviously improve by taking more marks, and kicking more goals.
smokeys: Back pocket Josh Hunt slightly underperformed last year only playing 13 games with a limited amount of gametime. He is a beautiful kick of the football who usually takes kickouts. The 26yr old defender might step up his game by cementing a spot in Geelong’s backline, and being somewhat of a “go-to-player”. Corey Enright is a severely under-rated player who got a stack of footy off halfback last year. You will find he’s been misclassified as a centre (to his disadvantage). There is a bit of Nigel Lappin about him though, so I wouldn’t underestimate his fantasy value. Rising Star winner Joel Selwood made a phenomenal rise into senior footy last year. He scored 1539pts from 18 games (average 85.50). Those are the best numbers I can remember from a 1st year player. Unfortunately, he’s going to be a mega rip-off but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of this kid improving. He is obviously a stat king of the future. 21yr old Brent Prismall has been set back by a number of injuries over the past 2 years. His pre-season form has been really good, and I would expect him to become a 1st team regular. He has been topping stat-sheets in the VFL for long enough. Prismall is a likely addition to the Cats strong midfield.
cash cows: 23yr old Tom Lonergan has been earmarked as the next full-forward in replacement of Nathan Ablett. He was named best-on-ground in the VFL Grand Final booting 6 goals. His pre-season form has been good and I would expect him to play rd1. He can take a strong mark and kick a goal. I presume he will be this year’s version of Tim Boyle, and comes with good recommendation. 21yr old Harry Taylor was surprisingly taken at pick no.17 in the 2007 national draft as a mature age recruit. He is listed at 193cm, and described as “a versatile player who can play a number of positions”. The Egan injury could provide a spot for this kid as a tall defender. He has looked alright in pre-season and I rate him a strong chance to play games this year. Medium sized forward Ryan Gamble is heading into his 3rd season. His great pre-season form suggests he will have a breakthrough year, and wouldn’t be too far off their starting lineup. He is statistically well-rounded, and certainly worth a *punt*.

HAWTHORN
Will Lance Franklin do it again? They will certainly be a force if he provides another 70+ goal season. The popular view of this team is a top 4 finish. But on the back of last year’s rollercoaster ride, I’m predicting a slide. They have a young inexperienced list that is building towards a 5-10yr dynasty. The Hawks play a high possession brand of football and like to overload the midfield. As a result, there are a lot of uncontested marks in the backline. The forwarline, however, is all about Franklin.
FB – Guerra, Gilham, Brown
HB – Birchall, Croad, Ladson
C – Crawford, Mitchell, (Sewell)
HF – McGlynn, Franklin, Young
FF – Boyle, Roughead, Williams
R – Campbell, Hodge, Lewis
i/c – Taylor, Bateman, Ellis, Rioli
big guns: Vice-captain Luke Hodge is a goalscoring midfielder who often gets tagged. He produces quality possessions, tackles, hardball gets, clearances, which all rate well in SuperCoach. However, he is carrying over a suspension from last year, so will miss rd1. Inside-midfielder Jordan Lewis will also miss the first 2 rounds through suspension. He accumulates plenty of junk stats, and has the luxury of not being tagged. Wait until he starts playing before you buy him though. Newly appointed captain Sam Mitchell is a DreamTeam points-machine. He regularly provides 30+ possession hauls, takes uncontested marks in the back half, and lays plenty of tackles. Like Lewis, he avoids opposition taggers, and is also one the best centre clearance players in the competition. If you’re looking for a Hawthorn centre Mitchell is the one you want!
hot prospects: 20yr old Grant Birchall has all the makings of being a top fantasy pick. The tall halfback flank has a good motor and reads the play quite well. He gets a lot of easy kicks and uncontested marks just by chipping around the backline, but is capable of getting hardball too. His style of play is very much in the Adam McPhee mould, and he’s a continually improving player. 20yr old Xavier Ellis is heading into his 3rd season of football and is expected to be a 1st team regular. His pre-season form has been good, and his stats are ready to improve. He didn’t reach any great heights last year, so you’ll find he’s been generously priced. The former no.3 draft pick has been listed as a back, but is very much a midfield orientated player. 21yr old superstar Lance Franklin is on the verge of big gun status. He kicked 63 goals at CHF in the home-and-away season but only managed 1587pts from 20 games (average 79.25ppg). He kicked more behinds than goals last year, and was the most inaccurate player in the competition. He was also a constant offender of free kicks, and had the highest differential of frees against vs frees for in the competition. Lance can only get better from here. He is a tall mobile player who takes contested marks, and is also good at ground level. Goals are the key to his success.
smokeys: no.1 tagger Brad Sewell stepped up into an elite defensive midfielder last year. He regularly shut down key players, and was good enough to win his own ball. I think there is room for improvement in his fantasy output. He will certainly benefit in the first few rounds without Hodge, Lewis, and Crawford. Forward Mark Williams is regarded as one of the best set shots in the competition. He only played 4 games last year due to injury. He doesn’t generate a lot of stats, but is a proven goalkicker who is capable of 50+ goals. His price is below par, and Lance Franklin ought to take the pressure off him. 28yr old Stuart Dew has made a surprise comeback to AFL football. He is a booming long kick who is expected to play off the bench as a forward. I couldn’t quite find a spot for him in their best22, but he should play every game. His statistical output will be hard to predict, but his starting price looks attractive enough to buy.
cash cows: 22yr old Zac Dawson is a tall defender with senior experience, and his price has dropped to base. I can’t see a spot for him in their starting lineup, but I would expect him to play games. He’s not a statistical player, but anyone could find a stat in the Hawthorn backline! 20yr old midfield prospect Travis Tuck (brother of Shane Tuck) is a 3rd year player and should play most games this year. He’s had a good pre-season, and will probably start rd1 due to Hodge, Lewis, Crawford’s unavailability. 19yr old Jarryd Morton (brother of Mitch and Cale) has really impressed me during the pre-season, and is extremely close to their best 22. He plays a tallish forward/midfielder role (similar to the Ryan O’Keefe mould) and has some serious stat potential. I highly recommend him! 18yr old star recruit Cyril Rioli was taken at pick no.12 in the 2007 draft. He has been electrifying this pre-season, and will bring the Hawks some much needed forwardline pressure. I think this kid will make an immediate impact, and looks certain to be the next Alwyn Davey. Get on board!

KANGAROOS
Are they set for a tumble? The Roos are a tough team to predict. They have very few stars, and probably one of the worst lists, yet miraculously finished in the top 4 last year. According to Champion Data, this is the least statistical team in the competition. They play a direct brand of football, which results in fewer disposals per goal. Not a lot of big guns here. Jess Sinclair will miss the first 4rds with a thumb injury, which is a major blow.
FB – Pratt, Firrito, Gibson
HB – Je.Smith, Petrie, Sinclair
C – Swallow, Simpson, (Rawlings)
HF – McMahon, Edwards, Grant
FF – Jones, N.Thompson, Thomas
R – McIntosh, Wells, Harvey
i/c – Hale, Harris, Hansen, Campbell
big guns: Brent Harvey had a career-best season last year playing as a traditional rover-typed midfielder. He is prolific in both looseball & hardball gets, and is one of the top goalscoring midfielders in the competition. He can be targeted by opposition taggers, but a fit Daniel Wells should take the pressure off him this year. Harvey is a consistent player who rarely misses games. 32yr old captain Adam Simpson has been a consistent fantasy player for many years. He’s a top clearance player who just keeps clocking up the possessions. He rarely misses games and certainly won’t get tagged. 2000+pts is his regular yearly output. 23yr old Hamish McIntosh was robbed of All-Australian honours last year. The 203cm ruckman scored a remarkable 1762pts from 22 games (average 80.09ppg) which made him one of the highest scoring players in the ruck category. This kid has a massive tank and covers a lot of ground, picking up marks, possessions, goals, and hitouts. Not as good as Dean Cox though.
hot prospects: 21yr old Jesse Smith had a breakthrough season last year playing 16 games and scoring 992pts (average 62.00ppg). He is quite a good athlete and is 191cm tall, best suited to playing off the halfback flank in the Adam McPhee mould. I think he’ll take his game to the next level and improve his stats. His pre-season has been thwarted by injury so he might be unavailable for rd1. The dynamic Daniel Wells is yet to prove himself at the fantasy level. He is undeniably an elite midfielder, but some of the things he does just won’t get you dreamteam points. Wells began 2007 like a house on fire, but a knee injury ruined his form & fitness. If he can sustain his early season form of last year, he’ll be a great buy. 20yr old midfielder Andrew Swallow can only get better from here. He played off the bench last year as an inside mid rotation, and was great at winning clearances. He should get much more gametime this year, and obviously, more stats. Makeshift CHF Aaron Edwards was one of the recruits of the season last year. The 184cm ex-Eagle is a strong marking player who is particularly tough to match-up on. I anticipate he’ll play CHF, and be forced to cover more ground. This should bring about more marks, possessions, assists, and goals. Nathan Thompson is returning from a knee reconstruction that kept him on the sidelines in 2007. He is a key forward and a former 50+ goalkicker for the club. He has been eased through the pre-season, but is expected to play rd1. Although his price seems generous, don’t expect his stats to reach previous great heights.
smokeys: 21yr old Scott McMahon brings good pressure to the forwardline and is an improving player. He has the ability to generate midfield orientated stats and is available in the backs/forwards. Leigh Harding is also returning from a knee reconstruction. Although I don’t see him as a starting player, his price is way below par. Dean Laidley indicated he’s been training him up as a defender, so he could be a replacement for Sinclair in rd1.
cash cows: Ex-Magpie Ben Davies has joined the Kangaroos over the summer and is vying for selection. The 21yr old has some senior experience, and has a good eye for a stat. He is listed as a centre and is priced just above base. 21yr old Scott Thompson was taken at pick no.37 in the 2007 draft as a mature aged recruit. He’s been very good in pre-season, and would be close to their best 22. He’s a 190cm defender who clocks up marks in the backline. 19yr old Lachlan Hansen was taken at pick no.3 in the 2006 draft and played 2 games last year. He’s had an excellent pre-season and looks like stepping up this year. He’s a tall versatile defender with a good engine who could feature off halfback. I’m sure a lot of people will buy him. 19yr old Gavin Urquhart was taken at pick no.21 in the 2006 draft and is a rough chance for selection in rd1 as a replacement for Sinclair. He’s been touted to receive a halfback/midfield type role. He appears ready to play some games this year. 18yr old Robbie Tarrant (brother of Chris) was taken at pick no.15 in the 2007 draft and should also play games this year. He is listed at 196cm, and could give the forwardline some much needed height.