TIPPAZ Top Trade Targets 07

[Tippaz]

ADELAIDE
Are they boring us to death, or what? The Crows have been a frustrating team to watch. They’re way too defensive and tend to produce low scoring games. But they just keep winning, so expect more of the same!
At least ONE of them isn’t boring us… and that would be their most influential player Andrew McLeod. He’s the best running-half-back-flank in the competition, and will consistently pick up 20+ possessions per week.
In midfield, the strong-bodied Scott Thompson has increased his workload as Adelaide’s no.1 centreman. He is doing well in ‘clearances’ and ‘hardball gets’. Most of his stats are in-and-under and will remain unnoticed. Opposition teams won’t bother tagging him because he doesn’t pose any real threat. Therefore, he’ll always be a productive ball-winner.
My other midfield recommendation is 30yr old pro, Tyson Edwards. This guy seems to be getting better with age. I think he’s a very reliable player with a good track record. He’s still a prolific ball-winner who gets plenty of tackles and assists. So far this year, Edwards has escaped the attention of taggers.

BRISBANE
The young Lions remain a finals chance. They’ve been a little unpredictable in the way they play, but I think they’re best suited to attack. The Carlton v Brisbane match provided one of the best spectacles of the year – a high scoring shootout! Let’s hope they stick to that.
The barometer for this team is centre-half-forward behemoth Jonathon Brown. When he fires, the team fires! Brisbane can sometimes be one-dimensional, and need to find other forward options. But big Jonathon remains the central target. He can produce 15+ marks, 5+ goals, and can even nudge 20+ possessions on his day. The only thing stopping him is injuries. He hasn’t had a lot of luck over the past few years, and doesn’t have a good track record at stringing games together. I would still consider him a risk.
My best midfield pick goes to Simon Black. The ultra consistent Black keeps getting tagged by opposition teams, yet manages to rack 25+ disposals per week. He doesn’t take a lot of marks, but he’ll make up for it in tackles. Over the course of his career he has rarely missed games. The 27yr old co-captain is having another stellar year.

CARLTON
The Blues have been one of the better teams to watch. They generally like to move the ball quickly and kick long into the forwardline. Although they haven’t been winning many games, Denis Pagan is doing the right thing by playing the young kids and sticking to the attacking game plan.
At the beginning of the season, the smart dreamteam coaches would have realised 23yr old midfielder Andrew Carrazzo was misclassified as a ‘back’. He was more of a wingman-type player with onball rotation. Well, it looks like this kid has taken the next step and has become a permanent onballer after the season ending injury to Nick Stevens. That makes Carrazzo hot property – so get on him!
Amongst the ‘centres’, Heath Scotland is once again slipping under the radar of opposition teams as Carlton’s no.1 onballer. Although he’s not quick, he seems rather evasive. And he uses the ball particularly well. You’d think this guy would draw the no.1 tagger each week (especially with Stevens gone!). But nope, the taggers are picking up Marc Murphy instead. This obviously frees up Scotland to gather more possessions. He was to no.2 ranked player in dreamteam last year with a total of 2289pts @ave. 104.05pts/per game.

COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies have been a bit of a surprise packet this year. Most of us thought they’d drop out of the 8 after last year. But Mick Malthouse has rebuilt his side with some excellent young players aged between 18-21. ShawH, ClokeT, O’Brien, Thomas, Pendlebury seem like key players already, and some of the other kids have stepped up also. Fans have every right to feel excited.
Believe it or not, 27yr old Tarkyn Lockyer is having the season of his life. He’s isn’t very quick, and is only 178cm tall, but he is a tough as they come. His workrate has been extraordinary this year, and I think he sets a really strong example to his younger teammates. Lockyer started the year as a wingman with minor onball rotation, but I’ve got no doubt he’ll progress to permanent onballer very soon. He will become the next Chapman!! And yep – he’s available as a totally misclassified ‘back’. Lockyer hasn’t missed a game for about 3-4 years, and is currently the no.1 ranked ‘back’ in the competition. I think he is an absolute “must-have” and will feature in nearly every dreamteam this year. Get on board!!
There is another fellow in the ‘backs’ that may have caught your eye. 21yr old Heath Shaw (younger brother of Rhyce) has improved out of sight over the past 1-2 years and is really playing like a seasoned veteran. He has the envious role of playing as a loose man in defence (just like Chad Cornes) and will undoubtedly succeed in racking up a ridiculous amount of marks across halfback.
If you’re looking for ruckman, Josh Fraser could be your man. Technically, he’s not the best ruckman going around, but there’s no denying he’s got a massive engine. He will get roughly 70-75% of gametime (which is a lot for a ruckman), and will continue to work hard for his marks around the ground. Fraser was the no.2 ranked ‘ruck’ last year with a total of 2095pts @ave. 95.23pts/per game.
In midfield, it looks like Dane Swan has picked up from where he left off last year. This guy is an out-and-out stat machine. He’s slow, one-paced, spends large chunks on the bench, and can’t kick. Yet he still manages to ave. 1 disposal for every 4 min (which is just about league record). Last year he was famously misclassified as a ‘back’ and I still have nightmares about NOT buying him… (“Oh-no, not Swan!! Everyone’s got Swan!!”). This year he is available in the ‘centres’ where he belongs.

[Tippaz]

ESSENDON
The Bombers are looking okay at the moment. Matthew Lloyd makes a massive difference to the side. When he plays they seem to win, but when he doesn’t play they seem to lose. Short kicks have crept into their game plan this year, and Essendon contain four of the top6 mark-takers for season 2007.
One of those players is veteran Dustin Fletcher. He is having a mighty productive season playing as a 3rd tall in defence. Having Mal Michael in the team really frees him up. Fletcher is happy to sit back in defence while his opponents move up the ground (sometimes making him a loose man). And Fletcher is one of the best long kicks in the AFL. That makes him the go-to-man, because he can be a real architect in setting up shots on goal.
Let’s not forget about Adam McPhee. He too, is a serial offender in taking 10+ marks per week. He has the enviable role of playing loose man across halfback. He’s collected some minor injuries over the past couple of seasons, but right now he’s going along just fine.
If you’re looking for a forward, it’s hard too ignore James Hird. He has amazingly played every game so far and is currently the no.2 ranked ‘forward’. Not bad for a 34yr old playing his final season! Well, his normal position is half-forward-flank, but he will always push into the midfield. He will even play in short bursts as an onballer from time to time. Jimmy has experienced just about every football injury under the sun, so it’s wrong to assume he’ll play all 22 games this year. But if you’ve got the cover and want to take a calculated risk, he’ll basically deliver midfield stats.
Perhaps the smarter option in the forwards is the ever reliable Scott Lucas. He plays centre-half-forward and is in career-best form at the moment. He is capable of 10+ marks, 5+ goals, and will always try to kick rather than handball. Lucas rarely gets injured and doesn’t often miss games. He normally kicks 50+ goals per season.
If you want someone under the radar, I would recommend Brent Stanton. He is currently the no.5 ranked player in dreamteam. This 20yr old onballer is an absolute running machine. He usually gets 90-100% of gametime (an incredible load for a midfielder) and he consistently racks up high disposals. He is even one the leading players in ‘marks’ in the competition. Stanton is a poor kick of the football. But as a result, opposition teams won’t bother tagging him.

FREMANTLE
What do we make of this lot? Could they miss the finals? Well, I don’t like watching their games because I think they over-possess the ball. They need to start playing more direct football and just kick it long into the Pavlich/Tarrant forwardline.
Freo captain Matthew Pavlich is one of the top centre-half-forwards in the competition. He’s super consistent, extremely reliable, never gets injured, and hasn’t missed a game for about 5 years. That’s why he’s the 4th most bought player this year. He’ll always be prolific in stats, especially marks and goals. He’s quite capable of kicking 70+ goals. He’s really a must-have, for those that don’t already own him.
Aaron Sandilands was looking like the new dreamteam god after rd1. Since then, his performances have waned, but he’s still shaping up to be one of the premier ruck stocks. Fremantle like to give him as much gametime as possible. He is consistently getting 30+ hitouts per game, but tends to labour around the ground.

GEELONG
Are they the real deal? Well, I think they are. They’re playing a much more attacking faster brand of football, and they’re winning in style. The Cats are generating a lot of stats, and have a lot of midfield rotations. So there’s plenty of players to choose from!
In defence, 29yr old Darren Milburn continues to deliver the goods. He plays as the 3rd tall in defence, but will often zone-off into space and travel further up the ground. He takes a lot of marks, and usually gets 90-100% of gametime. Over the years, Milburn has always been a great fantasy pick. This year is no exception!
Excitement machine Gary Ablett jr is having a spectacular season. He could be a sneaky chance for the Brownlow. His stats have finally hit a new level through some very helpful midfield rotations. His normal position is half-forward-flank, but he can play as a rover-onballer too. Ablett doesn’t often miss games, and tends to play through injury (if he needs to).
Hardnut onballer Paul Chapman has unbelievably been misclassified as a ‘forward’ yet again. Right now, he is sitting out on the sidelines with hamstring soreness. But you can’t underestimate his stat pontential. Last year, he was the no.1 ranked forward (albeit misclassified) scoring 2228pts @ave. 101.27pts/per game. He makes heaps of tackles, kicks goals, and is a master at the ‘hardball get’. When he returns from his injury, most dreamteam coaches will want to take advantage of his misclassification.
There are a lot of highly ranked ‘centres’ in the Geelong lineup. But if you haven’t already worked it out, Jimmy Bartel is the best of them. He is currently the no.1 ranked player in dreamteam this year. The 23yr old is having a massive season, and is one of the Brownlow favourites amongst the bookies. This guy is an absolute stat machine. He consistently racks up 30+ possessions, 8+ marks, 5+ tackles. He is also the no.1 ranked player in Champion Data, scoring big in clearances, hardball gets, and assists. Grab him if you can afford him – he’ll be worth every cent!!
Looking for a more affordable pick? Well, Joel Corey is quietly going about his business once again. No one ever seems to notice this guy, despite his consistently high output. Taggers don’t go near him, and Corey keeps on racking up 25-30 disposals every week. He’s been a very good fantasy pick over the past 2-3 years, and this year is no exception. He will continue to go under the radar while Bartel, Chapman, and Ablett jr receive all the accolades.

HAWTHORN
The Hawks have won some early games and could be heading towards the finals this year. But if they continue to play the ‘keepings off’ chipping game they will lose a lot of fans. The good news for us coaches is that backwards kicking and cheap uncontested marks will score you many points in dreamteam.
I would recommend centreman Sam Mitchell as their best pick. He’s a high possessions clearance player, and a very instrumental midfielder to the Hawthorn side. Luke Hodge tends to draw the no.1 tagger from each side, leaving Mitchell virtually unopposed.
You could also go for 20yr old hardnut Jordan Lewis who is amazingly the 6th ranked player in dreamteam at the moment. He is even less likely to be tagged than Mitchell. And Lewis’ numbers have gone through the roof this year. He is receiving a lot more gametime as an onballer, and takes a lot of uncontested marks around the ground. He has lifted his workrate immensely and is a star of the future.

[Tippaz]

KANGAROOS
After a shaky start, the Kangaroos are absolutely flying with 5 straight wins and currently sit 6th on the ladder. And thanks to ‘coach of the year (so far)’, Dean Laidley, he has turned his team into a wonderfully attacking fast moving side. They are averaging 21 disposals per goal (fewer than any side in the comp), and they are the only team that employ a genuine 6-man forwardline. This is the best team to watch this year!
If you hadn’t heard of Hamish McIntosh at the start of the season… join the queue! This kid has exploded onto the seen as the Kangaroos no.1 ruckman, and is seriously vying for All-Australian honours. He is giving his teammates first use of the ball, collecting 20-30 hitouts per game, and has gathered more possessions than any other ruckman in the competition this year. He’s obviously got great endurance, because he is spending about 75% of games on the ground (which is a lot more than most ruckmen). McIntosh is easily the most improved player in the competition.
I’m sure you’ve all heard of Adam Simpson though. The 31yr old captain has been severely under-rated his entire career. He gets 30 possessions almost every week, yet still won’t get tagged. He’s not the greatest user of the ball, but is a specialist at clearances. Simpson has always been a good fantasy pick, and, rarely misses games.
Brent Harvey might be worth considering as a wingman/onballer. He too, has been an excellent fantasy pick in recent years who rarely misses games. However, he is a very small player, and tends not to take marks. Well, it may be worth pointing out that Harvey has kicked more goals than any other midfielder in the competition this year, and he is certainly making up a lot of ground in dreamteam points. He is currently playing as an onballer because Wells is out of the side.

MELBOURNE
0 wins, 8 losses, season over. The unlucky Demons got pulverised with a plague of injuries in the opening rounds. Well, at least they don’t play junk football, and some of their war horses are still valuable selections.
None better than Jeff White, in my opinion. The 30yr old ruckman may have lost a yard of pace in his step, but he continues to play a lone hand in the ruck (as he’s done for so many years). He works really hard for his possessions around the ground, and can go forward and kick a goal. White hasn’t missed a game for a few years now.
Cameron Bruce has well and truly established himself as an elite midfielder. The 27yr old vice-captain is one of the hardest running players in the competition. Even though he receives constant attention from taggers, Bruce will simply run his opponent off his feet. This guy’s a genuine stat machine, and one of the best fantasy picks going around.
The other ‘centre’ pick notching up points is 30yr old James McDonald. This one-time-tagger is enjoying some career best form as an onballer. He’s only small, and won’t take many marks. But he’ll certainly make up for it in tackles. He was the competition’s leading tackler in season 2006.

PORT ADELAIDE
An impressive start sees the Power sitting 2nd on the ladder. Who would have thought that? They seem to own a valuable collection of midfielders, and Brett Ebert has been an excellent avenue to goal. As far dreamteam picks… those Cornes boys are at it again, aren’t they!
I’ll start with older brother Chad Cornes, who’s available as either back/forward. He can be used in a number of different ways given his versatile size (191cm) and athletic capabilities. But his most predominant role this year has been loose man across halfback, where he can mop up a million marks and accumulate a mountain of possessions. Chad has always been a stat machine. He just needs to put together a 22 game season. Niggling injuries have cost him a handful of games over the past few years, but he remains a popular fantasy pick nevertheless.
If you want a top midfield ‘centre’, just buy younger brother Kane Cornes. He has been the higher scorer in recent times. In fact, Kane was the highest scoring player in dreamteam last year with a grand total of 2311pts @ave. 105.05pts/per game. I think he’s a very safe option because he hasn’t missed a game for about 5 years.

RICHMOND
The wooden spoon favourites have been fielding the youngest team in the competition this year, and have obviously been struck hard by injuries to Brown, Simmonds, Coughlan (3 of their best 5 players). Their most recent lineup contained 14 players aged between 18-22. Thankfully, Terry Wallace is giving his fans something to cheer about by playing young kids and attacking football.
The best recommendation I’ve got is consummate defender Joel Bowden. Normally, I would rule out full-backs because they have too many statistical disadvantages. But Joel is an exception. He has somewhat revolutionised that position by continually running off his opponent and gathering 20+ possessions per game. He’s a highly creative player and often the go-to-man in defence (a bit like Fletcher). Hardly missed a game in the past 10 years, and has always been a top fantasy pick.

[Tippaz]

ST KILDA
As expected, new coach Ross Lyon has employed the Sydney gameplan upon the Saints. I don’t think this has rubbed off too well with the supporters. They have made a shaky start and have a long list of injuries. Not many good buys around here!
Nick Dal Santo has been a good pick over the past 2 years. The 23yr old is coping well enough with the constant pressure of taggers, and he actually wins a lot of ‘hardball gets’. I’ve noticed Dal tends to play better when Lenny Hayes is in the side. You might want to wait a few more weeks (until Lenny returns to form). Dal Santo hasn’t missed a game for 3-4 years now.

SYDNEY
Perennial slow starters, Sydney Swans, are cosily sitting 9th on the ladder. The ugly defensive style of play really negates the ability to accumulate stats. Not many good buys here either!
Ryan O’Keefe is not your average half-forward-flank. He pushes a long way up the ground, and basically becomes a midfielder. The super fit O’Keefe is one the hardest running players in the competition. And he hasn’t missed a game in 5 years. He takes plenty of marks, kicks goals, and provides plenty of assists. I think he’s one of the most important components to the Sydney lineup. You can buy him as a ‘forward’ and watch him get midfield stats.

WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Doggies continue to play their exciting brand of football. The team consists of a lot of midfield orientated players, and as a result, they have a lot of good buys.
Lindsay Gilbee is a magician with the ball. He’s one of the most accurate kicks in the competition, and one of the go-to-men coming out of defence. He mainly plays back-pocket or half-back-flank, but comes a long way up the field. He does particularly well with the inside50 stat. Gilbee is one of the best running-half-backs in the game, and hasn’t missed a game in the past 2 years.
Don’t overlook the no.1 ranked ‘forward’ Brad Johnson. The 30yr old captain is defying all logic by holding down full-forward once again. I can’t think of anyone with a better track record than Johnno. He has barely missed a game in the past 10 years, and has consistently been a high pointscorer. Johnson continues to be a tough matchup because he just works so hard up the ground, and basically produces midfield stats. On his day, he can produce 30+ possessions, 10+ marks, and 5+ goals. An absolute must-have, in my opinion.
Maybe there is one player with a better track record than Johnno, because 32yr old Scott West is leading the competition in disposals AGAIN. This guy is an absolute legend of the football club. West is ultra professional with fine leadership qualities, displays high levels of consistency, and is a role model for young players. He hasn’t missed a game for about 5 years, and is always a top fantasy pick. All the smart people buy Scott West instead of Chris Judd. He delivers!!
23yr old Daniel Cross is following in the footsteps of his older teammate Scotty West. Cross is a running machine, who normally finishes first in preseason time trials at the Bulldogs. He is a tallish midfielder, who probably takes more marks than other mids, and obviously finds a stack of the footy. I still think he handballs too much, but doesn’t often miss games.

WESTCOAST
No surprises here. The premiership is just about a forgone conclusion. They have some obvious stars that will score you points. Collectively, they have a lot of midfield orientated players producing high stats. Unfortunately, there have been some very dodgy misclassifications (like Selwood, Hurn, and Rosa).
After a frustrating start, Dean Cox has finally emerged as the no.1 pointscoring ruckman in the competition. Mark Seaby is still doing the bulk of the ruckwork for now, but as Cox slowly plays himself into match fitness, he will takeover as the dominant ruckman in the side. He has terrific athletic capabilities, and has the capacity to produce 20+ possessions, 10+ marks, 30+ hitouts. He just needs to get through the season.
At full-forward, big Quinten Lynch looks like he’s picked up in many areas. He hasn’t kicked a lot of goals thus far, but he’s leading hard up the ground taking more marks, and has even spent time in the ruck producing a handful of hitouts. He is always going to receive excellent service from the midfield ilk of Judd, Kerr, etc.
And the 2nd most bought player in dreamteam this year… is Chris Judd (surprise, surprise). Judd is having another super productive season. He gets a million possessions, lays plenty of tackles, and kicks heaps of goals, but for some strange reason he never takes many marks. It’s worth noting that he no longer draws the no.1 tagger from opposition teams (I think they’ve given up on him). Judd has never really produced the goods in dreamteam because he hasn’t quite put together the 22 games in the last few years. If everything goes right for him this year, he’ll be right up there. But I’ve always thought there are smarter picks than Judd.
Arguably, the best player in the competition this year has been Daniel Kerr. The 23yr old is finally getting the extra gametime through the midfield, and is producing the kind of stats we all knew he was capable of. Taggers are targeting Kerr instead of Judd now, and this has affected Kerr a little. But the good players know how to handle taggers, and I’m confident in Kerr’s ability. He has a poor history with suspensions/injury, and needs to find some continuity in his football.

[Borak]

Good post dude

[ALI-G]

Nice work there Tippaz, glad you mentioned Hirdy i've had him in SC since day 1 and he has had only one game below 90 all year.

[peterfitz]

Awesome work as usual Tippaz!

Hopefully you can get the best guns into your line-up sometime soon (those you don't already have, that is) and give the $$ a real shot. You're looking very good at this stage. Well done

Great pick with Hird AliG. Very risky but it's paid off for you
Hope he keeps it up!