Week 5 Tips

[Plugg3r]

Essendon V Collingwood
Port Adelaide V St.Kilda
Richmond V West Coast
Carlton V Brisbane
Sydney V Melbourne
Hawthorn V Western Bulldogs
Geelong V Kangaroos
Fremantle V Adelaide

[Balrog]

Try these for round 5 (my kiss of death?)


Ess 106 def Maggies 88
Port 91 def Saints 83
Eagles 117 def Tigers 66
Brisbane 90 def Carlton 78
Swans 91 def Demons 62
Hawks 96 def Dogs 93
Crows 97 def Freo 77
Cats 113 def Kangas 80

[Borak]

Essendon V Collingwood
Port Adelaide V St.Kilda
Richmond V West Coast
Carlton V Brisbane
Sydney V Melbourne
Hawthorn V Western Bulldogs
GeelongV Kangaroos
Fremantle V Adelaide

[Plugg3r]

LoL, Borak you have half the same picks as I.
One of use is going to go good this week at least :P

[Balrog]

To get each teams score I :
1) generated their mean score
2) generated their average defensive affect on their
opponents score
eg teams score 27% less than their average against crows
teams score 16% more than their average against freo
3) Gave each team their mean modified by opponents defensive
affect.

May not be perfect, but after tipping only 2 in round 4 I made the excel spread sheet. (nb it gets 6 right for round 4)

That said, it takes no home ground into account, or injuries etc.

Best bet according to SS is crows to beat Freo comfortably (at $1.90).

[ravadongon]

Essendon
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Fremantle

[Stray Cat]

Essendon
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Bulldogs
Geelong
Adelaide

[peterfitz]

Essendon
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Fremantle

[Balrog]

Adelaide have averaged 83 points and restricted their opponents by 27% less than their average.

Freo have averaged 105 points but yielded their opponents 16% more than their average.

result Adelaide 96 pts defeat Fremantle 77 pts

Only the Home Ground factor may save freo