AFL Final 8 - Who Will Make It Who Wont

[TalkingFootball]

Very interesting betting proposition if you can find the team thats on the rise or inversely the team on the decline.

What would your double be

1/ Team that will make TOP 4 from last years bottom 8

x

2/ Team that wont make the 8 from last years top 8

I read this thought proving post on bigfooty posted by Dan26 part article quoted below ...

Since the final 8 began, a team from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next year every single season.

1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995
1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996
1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and the Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd on the ladder respectively in 1997
1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998
1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999
1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000
2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001
2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.
2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003
2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.
2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005
2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006

It is also true that in that time at least one team from the top 8 has dropped out to finish in the BOTTOM FOUR every single year

1995 - Haw 6th in '94 to bottom 4
1996 - Foots 5th in '95 to bottom 4
1997 - Ess 6th in '96 to bottom 4, Haw 8th in '96 to bottom 4
1998 - Bris 8th in '97 to bottom 4
1999 - Adel 5th in '98 to bottom 4, Melb 4th in '98 to bottom 4
2000 - WCE 5th in '99 to bottom 4, Port 7th in '99 to bottom 4
2001 - Kang 4th in '00 to bottom 4
2002 - Carl 5th in '01 to bottom 4, Rich 4th in '01 to bottom 4
2003 - Melb 6th in '02 to bottom 4
2004 - Coll 2nd in '03 to bottom 4
2005 - Ess 8th in '04 to bottom 4
2006 - Kang 5th in '05 to bottom 4

Now the trends for both these phenomenas have continued unabated for 12 consecutive years.

So lets first look at the team most likely to be the big improver. Below is a list in order 9-16 in final ladder positions for season 2006 plus two sets of prices for season 2007 ... first to make the 8 ... second (& more importantly) to make the top 4

09/ Richmond - $3.00 & $8.00
10/ Geelong - $1.65 & $2.60
11/ Hawthorn - $2.65 & $7.00
12/ Port - $2.15 & $5.00
13/ Brisbane - $4.50 & $16.00
14/ Kangaroos - $6.00 & $31.00
15/ Essendon - $2.75 & $12.00
16/ Carlton - $5.00 & $26.00

So who is it going to be? Who is the value team?

Now lets try to find the team most at risk to drop out ... listed below in last years final 8 finishing order for the home & away season 2006 and then the 2007 prices for that team not to make the eight.

1/ West Coast - $ 5.75
2/ Adelaide - $ 4.35
3/ Fremantle - $ 2.80
4/ Sydney - $ 3.50
5/ Collingwood - $1.58
6/ St Kilda - $ 3.00
7/ Melbourne - $ 1.80
8/ Bulldogs - $ 2.65

So who is it going to be? Who is the value team?

So what would your double be?

[Brades]

Its tough to see anyone of the top 8 from last year hitting rock bottom... but if it were to be anyone it'd be Collingwood or Adelaide.. Can't believe Freo's odds are so low.

For the bottom 8 making the top 4, odds on favourite is basically Geelong.

[ALI-G]

Value to make the 8 is Brisbane, Essendon and consider geelong for a top 4 spot.

Im with Brades on teams not making the 8 Crows are a big risk, having reassessed Collingwoods list they are clearly rebuilding now. Melbourne is another of concern but I reckon they will be there.

[g.g.]

The only likely current top 8 teams that could drop so low as bottom 4 could be Collingwood, St Kilda.

The only likely current non-top-8 sides that could rise into the 8 could be Port Adelaide (seriously), Geelong, Richmond.

However, while at least one has always happened, sometimes 2 or more happens. I'm inclined to think 2007 will see 2-3 new teams in the top 8 that weren't there last season.

IMO.

[adrianhood007]

Geelong are the only side that can make the top 4.
I don't see how Brisbane, Essendon or Port can beat any of the elite teams(WC, Sydney, Freo) where as Geelong have beat all of them a couple of times in the last 2 years. I still think those 3 teams can make the top 8 though...
I think Collingwood & Melbourne with their injuries will definitely drop out of the 8...

[PAFC]

Port beat WC and Sydney last year and we've improved alot since then. Not to mention the fact that Essendon and Port HAVE already beaten Freo so far

[adrianhood007]

Good point.
I think they can make the 8, I just think they may have too many young players to beat the top sides in a final...

[Plugg3r]

I still reckon old PAFC have one more year, then they'll be right.
Until then, keep beating WCE.. ONLY no Swannies on that list... KTHXBYE!

[Judd3]

WCE
SYD
FREO
WEST
COLL
ST.K
ADEL
HAW

tHAT WAS MY tips b4 the season so I'll stick by that, But I think Brizzy and the Bombers could snuff out an opponent or 2. I think It's WCE'S Flag again anyway or even Freo although they have stumbled. Sydney in 2005 and also in 2006 started poorly but look what happened. But yes I say put a few bob on the Eagles, on game day they will fire when it matters.


Cheers