Dellas's 2007 AFL Tipping thread

[della]

Good to see Melb do the right thing by us all last night (not)


The only other game that stands out is W.Dogs vs Geel for mine, yes i did alot of money on Geelong last year but i think the bookies have put up the wrong fave here, bulldogs missing Grant and harris and they do look abit shaky down back, Geelong close to full strength and i really expect them to handle the Dogs this early in the year, Ottens and Mooney look potent up fwd and as long as geelong can control enough of the dogs midfielders i see them kicking a big enough score to win.


2 units Gee @ $2.10

[Tombo]

For me the start of the season is always a little harder to pick - favourites are not as reliable as they become later in the season. Round 1 was the classic example.

Lost on Melbourne and Freo(under 40) while I picked up West Coast at pretty attractive odds. Still a slight deficit for round 1.

Della - GFC owe you a lot of money! Still I'm predicting you will still go +20 units this season.

[della]

yeah early on can be hard tombo, not the best way to start the year, i also ended up backing ess at line but backed the tigers also, Geelong have started bad for me again and looking at the early odds this week it seems i will be on them again as they look overs for mine.

[della]

YTD 0-2 = -4units


Not the best start last week but lets hope we can improve this week.


Rnd 2


Geel vs Carl - Can't really work out the odds for this game, Carl yes have been in ok form but they have beaten pretty much the bottom 4-5 sides thru the NAB Cup and in Rnd 1 whilst the Cats who were pathetic last week still hung around only losing by 20pnts, -4.5 here at the line looks a gift on paper and i feel this is a very good bet indeed, lets hope the cats do the right thing for me this week, they should!


Port vs kangs - Kangs r a pathetic outfit no question but again i feel boomakers have over-reacted to ports win, yes port r a team on the up and kangs r very avg, but getting 31.5pnts start here is alot for mine, thought it should of been around 22.5 line so the value lies with the kangs, port still missing a few and the kangs should be able to keep this close enough to cover.


Ess vs Frem - again quiet don't understand the odds here, if ess had of lost last week and dockers won u would be looking at $1.50 frem instead we now can get $1.89 which is big value for mine, i know the Bombers have improved no question but i have a big opinion of the dockers and can't pass up at the price on offer, the bombers well may continue on there rnd 1 form but the Dockers r a good side and deserve to be clear faves for mine, at the price i am keen on the dockers.


Melb vs Haw - Mel were awful last week as were the Hawks but the Hawks get a few back this week in Crawford, Brown etc whilst the Dees lose another hard nut in McClean, Dees have the better lineup u would say but it seems they have a few players still underdone and down on form early in the piece, prepared to back the Hawks at the line here as there isnt much between them i feel early in the year.


Bets:

2 units Geel -4.5 @ $1.91
2 units Kangs +31.5 @ $1.91
2 units Frem @ $1.89
2 units Hawks +13.5 @ $1.91

[Tombo]

WCE v Collingwood

I can see the pies giving this one a shot for about 3 quarters. I think WCE will eventually get over them buoyed by their home crowd. Willing to take on the risk of the pies winning by taking the under 40.

1 Unit WCE under 40 @ $2.35

W.B v Adelaide

Interesting game with the dogs on fire last week. I would expect another good game from them - however I think the market has overreacted with Adelaide's loss last week. Would expect them to be better this week.

2 Units Adelaide @ 3.19


Good to see the lions get up last night. They looked massive overs. Hope you blokes all jumped on.

[bigtim]

nice betting Tombo, i certinaly didnt see that 1 coming, impressive by the crows to bounce back so well. nice to you to della with the cats, i was just going to watch the first 2 rounds b4 i had a bet, but with these games im considering waiting another round! Another brilliant year of afl i reckon.

[Tombo]

Yeah very pleased with the crows result bigtim. They were overpriced for mine although I was surprised with the margin in the end.

I find that there are a lot of good opportunities early in the season. As the season goes on i think favourites become the preferred value team.

[Frizzo]

Spot on Tombo.

The value is totally in the underdogs early on. I've got off to a flyer, going 3-0 with Port and Essendon in Rd 1 and Adelaide in Rd 2. However, will not count them in my tally

As far as TF.net goes I am 0-0 for +0 units

[Tombo]

Frizzo - Good to see you back mate.

I'm in the same boat as you (although not with port in rnd 1!) - there were some NAB cup value standouts that did the right thing by me.

I've also noticed that Della took three underdogs with the handicap this week - where as on average I reckon he plays the minus 7 times out of 10. So value underdogs early in the season should be one of the worst kept secrets - whether it is or not though is a different story.

[della]

Good Rnd going 3-1 to get back to square nearly ( ytd 3-3 = -0.54 units)


Nice pick on the Crows Tombo they were good odds in the end, Geel did the right thing for me, prob should of had the house on them, Carl should never have been only 4.5pnts from fave in that game, don't worry about the cats, they may have cost me alot last year but they have been good to me ever since i started betting professionally 5-6 yrs back.

Looking at this week there should be a few good games and am interested in a few in particular, will post later in the week, cheers della!