Dellas's 2007 AFL Tipping thread

[della]

Hey guys, it's great to have the footy back again, as per usual i will post my plays on the AFL each week and hopefully continue to find winners and make a prfoit like the last 2-3 years on this forum, feel free to comment positive or negative and as i have said before, it's all about opinion and information and we are all trying to achieve the same thing here in making a profit.

best of luck thru the year della!

[Dozer]

Good to see you back here Della. Looking forward to your tips. I too will post my tips and hope to continue from my profit of last year. Here's to all of us beating the bookies.

Cheers,
Dozer.

[Stray Cat]

Good to see you guys are back tipping again this season. Followed Della's tips a fair bit last year and manged to turn a small profit. How much could I have made if I had ignored your geelong tips. Good luck to you both.

[della]

YTD 0-0 = 0 units


Rnd 1 Melb vs Stkilda = Pretty keen on the Demons to get the 1st up win here, the Saints are missing a few names and have question marks on a few others, the Dees should have a few more players up and running and i expect them to get over the saints late in the game.


2 units Melb -9.5 @ $1.91

[Dozer]

$1.98 available for Melb -9.5 at Pinnacle

[Tombo]

Della - good to see you back - hopefully will continue the good form of the last couple of seasons.

Agree with you on tonights game - Melbourne have close to a full side in while Stkilda are missing a few of their best. Saints normally struggle playing at the MCG and Melbourne have had the wood on them in the past two encounters. Both sides have had a similar pre-season (the dees with less injuries).

I'll be taking that pinnacle line that Dozer pointed out.

2 Units Melbourne - 9.5 @ $1.98

[Stray Cat]

Melbourne are currently $1.91 with -8.5 line at gamebookers.

[Tombo]

I don't actually have a gamebookers account but you bring up an interesting point stray cat.

Is it better to have the extra point or the extra 7 cents.

In this case -8.5 @ 1.91
v -9.5 @ 1.98

Obviously there are computer programs to discover the relationship between points and price. Which is the better value?

[Stray Cat]

Melbourne are into $1.917 on Pinnacle now anyway.
I missed a couple of games by one point last season when I had checked lines on the morning of the game and they moved during the day. I guess it is what you feel comfortable with. Bet365 usually move their basketball lines by between 5 and 7 cents for each 1/2 point.

[Dozer]

Hard to compare with basketball as the main score is only 2 points compared to 6 with AFL. Also most basketball games are decided by less than 20 points, where that is a prob the average margin for AFL. Personally, I'd take the extra 7 cents (or 7% increase in potential winnings) for 1 point, but it does hurt missing by 1 point.