AFL Betting Round 8 - Woohoo & TalkingFootball

[TalkingFootball]

Here we go lets make it 3/3 winning weeks.



Tell if you like anything in particular.

[Woohoo]

I will get back to you TF. I have joined Centrebet and need to work my way through it.
While you are waiting, what do you like this week?

[TalkingFootball]

These are my thoughts ...

Game 1 - I like Hawthorn -4.5 @ $2.21 (really should back them straight-out - but figure their is a minor discrepancy here) normally backing interstate sides to cover a line is dangerous but I like the extra 11% for the sake of 5 points
Game 2 - Dogs ... but I'm not sure about where the line is yet.
Game 3 - Geelong ... but I dont like the line.
Game 4 - Adelaide ... maybe to protect the line or straight-out ... with better odds elsewhere
Game 5 - West Coast ... maybe to protect the line or straight-out ... with better odds elsewhere
Game 6 - Dont like this game
Game 7 - Carlton any way you want most likely at the line.
Game 8 - Dont like this game

Hope that makes sense.

[Woohoo]

Originally Posted by TalkingFootball

These are my thoughts ...

Game 1 - I like Hawthorn -4.5 @ $2.21 (really should back them straight-out - but figure their is a minor discrepancy here) normally backing interstate sides to cover a line is dangerous but I like the extra 11% for the sake of 5 points
Game 2 - Dogs ... but I'm not sure about where the line is yet.
Game 3 - Geelong ... but I dont like the line.
Game 4 - Adelaide ... maybe to protect the line or straight-out ... with better odds elsewhere
Game 5 - West Coast ... maybe to protect the line or straight-out ... with better odds elsewhere
Game 6 - Dont like this game
Game 7 - Carlton any way you want most likely at the line.
Game 8 - Dont like this game

Hope that makes sense.

I wasn't going to say anything about the Hawks game but I was looking at using my free bet for the Hawks to win by more than 10.5 @2.60. I am waiting to see what the teams are tonight.


Maybe the Dogs to win by more than 18.5 points @ 1.48. I think Melbourne are not a pushover these days.

MELBOURNE vs WESTERN BULLDOGS
Start:
Venue: MCG, Melbourne, AUS
Closing:
Market is open.
Pay on final result, extra time included if required.
MELBOURNE WESTERN BULLDOGS
+32.5 : 1.91 +82.5 : 1.07 -82.5 : 6.90 -32.5 : 1.91
+30.5 : 2.00 +80.5 : 1.08 -80.5 : 6.60 -30.5 : 1.83
+28.5 : 2.09 +78.5 : 1.09 -78.5 : 6.30 -28.5 : 1.76
+26.5 : 2.20 +76.5 : 1.10 -76.5 : 6.00 -26.5 : 1.69
+24.5 : 2.31 +74.5 : 1.11 -74.5 : 5.80 -24.5 : 1.63
+22.5 : 2.41 +72.5 : 1.13 -72.5 : 5.35 -22.5 : 1.58
+20.5 : 2.54 +70.5 : 1.14 -70.5 : 5.20 -20.5 : 1.53
+18.5 : 2.69 +68.5 : 1.16 -68.5 : 4.85 -18.5 : 1.48
+16.5 : 2.80 +66.5 : 1.18 -66.5 : 4.55 -16.5 : 1.44
+14.5 : 3.00 +64.5 : 1.20 -64.5 : 4.30 -14.5 : 1.40
+12.5 : 3.20 +62.5 : 1.22 -62.5 : 4.10 -12.5 : 1.36
+10.5 : 3.35 +60.5 : 1.24 -60.5 : 3.90 -10.5 : 1.33
+8.5 : 3.65 +58.5 : 1.27 -58.5 : 3.65 -8.5 : 1.29
+6.5 : 3.85 +56.5 : 1.29 -56.5 : 3.50 -6.5 : 1.27
+4.5 : 4.15 +54.5 : 1.33 -54.5 : 3.25 -4.5 : 1.24
+2.5 : 4.35 +52.5 : 1.36 -52.5 : 3.10 -2.5 : 1.22
-1.5 : 5.00 +50.5 : 1.40 -50.5 : 2.90 +1.5 : 1.18
-3.5 : 5.40 +48.5 : 1.44 -48.5 : 2.75 +3.5 : 1.16
-5.5 : 5.85 +46.5 : 1.48 -46.5 : 2.66 +5.5 : 1.14
-7.5 : 6.10 +44.5 : 1.53 -44.5 : 2.52 +7.5 : 1.13
-9.5 : 6.80 +42.5 : 1.58 -42.5 : 2.40 +9.5 : 1.11
-11.5 : 7.20 +40.5 : 1.63 -40.5 : 2.30 +11.5 : 1.10
-13.5 : 7.70 +38.5 : 1.69 -38.5 : 2.20 +13.5 : 1.09
-15.5 : 8.20 +36.5 : 1.76 -36.5 : 2.09 +15.5 : 1.08
-17.5 : 8.80 +34.5 : 1.83 -34.5 : 2.00 +17.5 : 1.07

Geelong?
-20.5 : 1.29
-22.5 : 1.32
-24.5 : 1.36

The West coast game does look good. How many points start would you want with that one?

[TalkingFootball]

Ok ... here is what I really like

Hawthorn -4.5 @ 2.21 - Adelaide @ 3.20 and Carlton @ 1.48 (Pinnacle) = 10.74 approx. So in theory we have $65.00 all up we return $698.00 approx

[Woohoo]

Adelaide @3.20 win only? I think Brisbane will win that one.

I am happy to go with those 3 choices though. Magpies will have to play out of their skin to win this weekend. Hawks are a good bet and the Crows could get up.

[TalkingFootball]

Originally Posted by Woohoo

Adelaide @3.20 win only? I think Brisbane will win that one.

I am happy to go with those 3 choices though. Magpies will have to play out of their skin to win this weekend. Hawks are a good bet and the Crows could get up.

Look must confess I think Brisbane are favorites ... but not by as much as the bookies want to say. Think you just have to take the overs when you think they are there. IMHO its not about who you think is going to win or lose. Its whether you think the odds are right or wrong. If that makes sense.

[Woohoo]

Originally Posted by TalkingFootball

Look must confess I think Brisbane are favorites ... but not by as much as the bookies want to say. Think you just have to take the overs when you think they are there. IMHO its not about who you think is going to win or lose. Its whether you think the odds are right or wrong. If that makes sense.

Fair enough. Like you say, it's their money were using now. Anyway, there's no fun in winning next to nothing.

I took this on centrebet

Adelaide +18.5 @2.00
Hawthorn -4.5 @ 2.21
Carlton -11.5 @1.77

$20 @7.82

[TalkingFootball]

Originally Posted by Woohoo

Fair enough. Like you say, it's their money were using now. Anyway, there's no fun in winning next to nothing.

I took this on centrebet

Adelaide +18.5 @2.00
Hawthorn -4.5 @ 2.21
Carlton -11.5 @1.77

$20 @7.82

Good Luck ... Do you want me to go ahead with

Hawthorn -4.5 @ 2.15 (Sorry had to edit - noticed line has moved)
Adelaide @ 3.20
Carlton @1.50

Approx?

[TalkingFootball]

Shivers its moved again ... well now we know where the money is going!!