Betting Strategy - Its about the odds

[Ben Cousins]

Originally Posted by TalkingFootball

Look must confess I think Brisbane are favorites ... but not by as much as the bookies want to say. Think you just have to take the overs when you think they are there. IMHO its not about who you think is going to win or lose. Its whether you think the odds are right or wrong. If that makes sense.

ridiculous theory if ever Ive heard one. iTS ABOUT THE ODDS not who you think will win what an absolute joke. Its always about who you think will win.

I cant stand when people say the most stupid things like that. So because for example a team has beaten another team 11 times and is at home and t odds are paying 1.50 you wouldnt back them cos the odds are low and would bet on a crud team for 11-1 cos the odds are good. Moronic. Best way to throw money away.

Use your head. I know so many people who wont back the logical choice because odds are low yet continue to p11ss money away.

richmond away to geelong
West Coast away to Port
Kangas to beat Collingwood

65-1 for example yeah Ill back that cos the odds are good. Lets put 100 dollars ona multi that will come in once out of 100 rather than put a 100 on a multi that pays 2.50




what a joke.

[TalkingFootball]

Originally Posted by Ben Cousins

ridiculous theory if ever Ive heard one. iTS ABOUT THE ODDS not who you think will win what an absolute joke. Its always about who you think will win.

I cant stand when people say the most stupid things like that. So because for example a team has beaten another team 11 times and is at home and t odds are paying 1.50 you wouldnt back them cos the odds are low and would bet on a crud team for 11-1 cos the odds are good. Moronic. Best way to throw money away.

Use your head. I know so many people who wont back the logical choice because odds are low yet continue to p11ss money away.

richmond away to geelong
West Coast away to Port
Kangas to beat Collingwood

65-1 for example yeah Ill back that cos the odds are good. Lets put 100 dollars ona multi that will come in once out of 100 rather than put a 100 on a multi that pays 2.50




what a joke.

Sorry but thats not what I said think you dont quite understand ... or I have not made myself clear.

The concept of OVERS works on %'s. Now odds are just another way to represent %'s. ALL odds quoted can be directly calculated into %'s via a simple and very basic mathematically equation or visa-versa all %'s can be quoted as odds.

However, I will concede this is a very difficult concept for many punters to understand.

Your example quoted has no relevance to my comments and completely mis-represents my thoughts. This is your example and is no way representative of what I think. Dont no where you got this example but you did not get it from me. If you have misunderstood my comments that something for you to deal with not me.

I've never, never ever said anything like your example.

So with all due respect think you need to re-read my comment and I'm happy to clarify any point you dont understand.

I know you have read this article but one that better explains my thoughts on Understanding Value vs Price ... hope that clarifies things.

PS Split this thread because its a excellent separate discussion ... thanks for raising.

[Ben Cousins]

Originally Posted by TalkingFootball

Sorry but thats not what I said think you dont quite understand ... or I have not made myself clear.

The concept of OVERS works on %'s. Now odds are just another way to represent %'s. ALL odds quoted can be directly calculated into %'s via a simple and very basic mathematically equation or visa-versa all %'s can be quoted as odds.

However, I will concede this is a very difficult concept for many punters to understand.

Your example quoted has no relevance to my comments and completely mis-represents my thoughts. This is your example and is no way representative of what I think. Dont no where you got this example but you did not get it from me. If you have misunderstood my comments that something for you to deal with not me.

I've never, never ever said anything like your example.

So with all due respect think you need to re-read my comment and I'm happy to clarify any point you dont understand.

I know you have read this article but one that better explains my thoughts on Understanding Value vs Price ... hope that clarifies things.

PS Split this thread because its a excellent separate discussion ... thanks for raising.

HAHAHAH ok mate sorry If I was rude when I posted back. I know what youre saying dude. Just a mate who says he likes the odds yet backs the most stupid games.

[Woohoo]

If you don't mind me bringing this over?

Originally Posted by Ben Cousins

Interesting. I'm always keen to gain some knowledge on the sporting game as I do enjoy a flutter from time to time. What you say I can relate to. I usually pick the short priced favourites and wager fairly large. I have of course, a very good success rate and pick a high percentage of winners. But as you stated, the margin for error is very small because all it takes is one loss and you're King Hit.

Money management is the key. Play by the rules, you won't get bitten. Invest in filth, you end up in mud. Golden Rules are don't get greedy and don't bet what you can't afford to lose.

And I pick the long shot mega leg multis.
This sums me up.

Value does not equal = 10/1 about a 20/1 chance. Big price received but no overlay.

Now many would say thats obvious.

However, bookmakers are experts at enticing some punters thru exotic bet types ie doubles, multiples, quadrella & futures betting etc into betting a price and not obtaining value.

Not a lot of thought went into my bets apart from thinking if I arsed the multi, it would pay big for small outlay.

I only punt on the AFL because I enjoy it. I might add a game from another sport but outside of the AFL season, I don't bet.

TF has me thinking a lot about my betting now and I don't treat it like a lottery and I am getting better results not $'s at the moment if you can understand that.

[TalkingFootball]

Originally Posted by Ben Cousins

HAHAHAH ok mate sorry If I was rude when I posted back. I know what youre saying dude. Just a mate who says he likes the odds yet backs the most stupid games.

No problems ... I fully understand how you mates think.

However, so do the bookies and why the monies are in there account and not in your mates.

Originally Posted by Woohoo

And I pick the long shot mega leg multis.

IMHO ... nothing wrong with that assuming we are coupling value bets ... not just coupling selections to get a big price.

Fortunately or sadly depends on where you sit ... many "punters" are addicted to the thrill of a collect over betting to the value over the odds proposition. Their desire to be "right" overrides their ability to seek the "best" bet where the probabilities sit in their favor.

Patience, discipline and the lack of an ego are things many "punters" dont have. Again why the bookies are big winners.

Perfect example is say a 4/1 chance = if the race was run 5 times you are going to lose 4 times and get a win once. Or expressed in %'s I will lose 80% of the time and win 20% of the time.

Thats right I'm going to lose more times than I win. Then its all about what odds I'm getting not whether I'm getting a collect more about what odds I need to make a PROFIT.

On the opposite side of the ledger if I backing 1/4 chances that are genuine 1/4 chances I need a 80% strike rate to .... BREAK EVEN ... tough task.

You give me 5/1 about a 4/1 chance I'm backing it. You give me even money about a 1/4 chance and I'm backing it. (The bigger the "overlay" the more I want to get on.)

You give me 4/1 about a 5/1 chance and I will watch the race, you give me 1/4 about an even money chance I will watch the race. The best thing about being a punter is .... YOU DONT have to bet in every race.

IMHO .... If you dont seek the "value overs bet" irrespective of the price and your opinion ... your setting yourself up to lose money.

NOW that's not FUN in my book.