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Old 02-12-2009, 10:50 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Understanding Value vs Price

Now I decided to start a new thread for this topic.

From the outset I make no claim to be the "expert" ... instead I share my experiences & discussions from far wiser men/women than me.

Someone once shared with me the quote .. 'when a punter truly understands the term value & seeks it in every bet they make. They make their first step to reducing the bookmakers advantage.'

Think Don Scott - best selling author not the ex-footy player referred to it as the "value revolution" in his famous book Winning More.

However, many people get value and price confused. Let me explain.

Value = obtaining a 3/1 about a 2/1 chance. Nice overlay in % terms.

Value does not equal = 10/1 about a 20/1 chance. Big price received but no overlay.

Now many would say thats obvious.

However, bookmakers are experts at enticing some punters thru exotic bet types ie doubles, multiples, quadrella & futures betting etc into betting a price and not obtaining value.

Now don't get me wrong I'm not saying you should avoid exotic bet types .. no I'm saying if you are going to use those bet types you must seek some level of expertise. You must spend many hours devote to quality analysis .. or be experienced ... as per Ashley who has been doing it since 1996.

One another small point for me with exotic bet types ... struggle with "double speculation" i.e. I never bet on an event that might never happen. Prime example for me is I will never bet on a horse race prior to the field, track conditions, jockeys, barrier draw being full exposed.

Much prefer to wait to as much as possible is in know for me to frame a "semi-accurate" market ... evaluate the comparative bookies-market prices ... if I find value I bet ... if I don't ... surprise I don't bet. Now must state here that is just a personal preference.

Quote:
Instead they know most people out there punt for getting the winner and the bookies love it that way
As one of my best friends says ... "patience is a virtue the lord gave to me ... thankfully he bestowed it on so few other punters."

Quote:
Anyone backing the odds on is also a "nice little donation to the bookmakers", WAS IT NOT???????
On the contrary ... as I've said a few times before around here.

"I'm happing to give you a $1.10 anytime about something that should be $1.10 ish. You just don't have much margin for error ... at those prices your strike rate has to be 9/10 to break even."

Have notice a small trend people are doubling, trebling, quadrella some "bad value teams" in an effort to get higher prices. Which IMHO is fraught with danger.

Quote:
Hopefully this forum is about us punters helping each other, isn't it?
Yip ... it sure is. The more views the better. I actually think you and I are alike .. both value punters. We might just tackle it for different angles.

But there are plenty other sports to bet on this year.

Looking forward to your contributions.
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Old 03-19-2009, 05:40 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Understanding Value vs Price

Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingFootball View Post
Now I decided to start a new thread for this topic.

From the outset I make no claim to be the "expert" ... instead I share my experiences & discussions from far wiser men/women than me.

Someone once shared with me the quote .. 'when a punter truly understands the term value & seeks it in every bet they make. They make their first step to reducing the bookmakers advantage.'

Think Don Scott - best selling author not the ex-footy player referred to it as the "value revolution" in his famous book Winning More.

However, many people get value and price confused. Let me explain.

Value = obtaining a 3/1 about a 2/1 chance. Nice overlay in % terms.

Value does not equal = 10/1 about a 20/1 chance. Big price received but no overlay.

Now many would say thats obvious.

However, bookmakers are experts at enticing some punters thru exotic bet types ie doubles, multiples, quadrella & futures betting etc into betting a price and not obtaining value.

Now don't get me wrong I'm not saying you should avoid exotic bet types .. no I'm saying if you are going to use those bet types you must seek some level of expertise. You must spend many hours devote to quality analysis .. or be experienced ... as per Ashley who has been doing it since 1996.

One another small point for me with exotic bet types ... struggle with "double speculation" i.e. I never bet on an event that might never happen. Prime example for me is I will never bet on a horse race prior to the field, track conditions, jockeys, barrier draw being full exposed.

Much prefer to wait to as much as possible is in know for me to frame a "semi-accurate" market ... evaluate the comparative bookies-market prices ... if I find value I bet ... if I don't ... surprise I don't bet. Now must state here that is just a personal preference.



As one of my best friends says ... "patience is a virtue the lord gave to me ... thankfully he bestowed it on so few other punters."



On the contrary ... as I've said a few times before around here.

"I'm happing to give you a $1.10 anytime about something that should be $1.10 ish. You just don't have much margin for error ... at those prices your strike rate has to be 9/10 to break even."

Have notice a small trend people are doubling, trebling, quadrella some "bad value teams" in an effort to get higher prices. Which IMHO is fraught with danger.



Yip ... it sure is. The more views the better. I actually think you and I are alike .. both value punters. We might just tackle it for different angles.

But there are plenty other sports to bet on this year.

Looking forward to your contributions.
Interesting. I'm always keen to gain some knowledge on the sporting game as I do enjoy a flutter from time to time. What you say I can relate to. I usually pick the short priced favourites and wager fairly large. I have of course, a very good success rate and pick a high percentage of winners. But as you stated, the margin for error is very small because all it takes is one loss and you're King Hit.

Money management is the key. Play by the rules, you won't get bitten. Invest in filth, you end up in mud. Golden Rules are don't get greedy and don't bet what you can't afford to lose.
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