How To Pick Your Footy Tips

[Balrog]

To get each teams score I :
1) generated their mean score
2) generated their average defensive affect on their
opponents score
eg teams score 27% less than their average against crows
teams score 16% more than their average against freo
3) Gave each team their mean modified by opponents defensive
affect.

May not be perfect, but after tipping only 2 in round 4 I made the excel spread sheet. (nb it gets 6 right for round 4)

That said, it takes no home ground into account, or injuries etc.

Best bet according to SS is crows to beat Freo comfortably (at $1.90).

[myecave]

i can't make an intelligent pick until thursday nite bacause of all the factors, including weather that i consider......

baalrog, you got four wrong last week.......since i missed five i am looking at your tips as maybe being imp......i am going to dive into stats and i'll be back later..............

[Balrog]

I made the SS after going abysmally in round 4, here are the SS predictions for round 4

Freo 107 +- 24 def Mel 80 +- 5 Correct
Adel 77 +- 2 def Sydney 60 +- 13 Correct
Port 101 +- 5 def Coll 99 +- 12 Correct
Wbull 94 +- 11 def Rich 96 +- 26 Correct (indecisive prediction)
WCE 102 +- 13 def Carl 87 +- 7 Correct
Bris 85 +- 12 def Kanga 63 +- 28 Incorrect
Ess 114 +- 30 def Saints 91 +- 17 Correct
Geelong 122 +- 33 def Hawks 82 +- 27 Incorrect

SS gets 6 of 8 round 4. Balrog alone got 2 of 8.