When To Trade Dreamteam Supercoach Players?

[m8rix]

Originally Posted by Diceman

yeh all this wait till after rnd two bull****, if you had Big JB, Ball, Goodes, and even if they hold up to their averages of last season over the next two weeks, your looking at losing 38,000 on brown, 27,000 on Ball, 21,000 on Goodes. Now, I don't reckon JB will average 140 over the next two weeks, so he is a must trade this week or next, cause he will prolly drop more then that, i'm tipping a loss of about 60-70,000 after rnd 3. ok so Jb is a must trade.

Ask your self why you selected those players in the first place? was it because they are good players that will guarantee an AVERAGE of 80-100 or was it to make money?
If it was to make money you obviously don't have a clue, if it was because they are proven possession winners and point scorers then the money is a non-issue! The issue is why would you waste one of your 20 precious trades for a upgrade that may not even turn out to be an upgrade after a few weeks anyway.
Yes, there WILL be players you WISH you had of selected, but too late now. Trading for money is a different thing altogether, you either trade for money or trade for talent don't get it mixed up, there is loads of money to be made at the lower end of the market and if you score good talent from this then look at it as a bonus. When you build up some money you CAN get Brad Johnson AS WELL AS JB

[Diceman]

Look you can't seperate the two, money equals points. its as simple as that, in fact, you get 1 point per $5152, This is based on averages right. Ie, if you spend $5152, and i spend $5152, and the players we both chose play the same as their average, then we will score the same.

Therfore, if you can raise the value of your team by half a million, your adding about 100 points per game to your teams score (assuming players maintain their averages once in your team).

Now assuming bench players of 90200, your spending 721600 on your bench, you can have up to $9278400 on the field, meaning you should average 1800points per game, based on last years stats. The only reason you can get higher, is 1) If your players IMPROVE. or 2) You pick up players who will improve. To do (2) you need to trade, trades should be on the basis of points and money. These are identical at the start of the season, fluctuate wildly rnd 3,4,5, and get relatively steady assuming a players performance in the new season (higher or lower) doesn't fluctuate.

Now, this doesn't mean you should off every player who plays a poor game. A drop of $50,000 is a drop of about 9.5 points per game. not much perhaps, unless that drop is followed by a drop of 40,000, then 30,000 etc.
Big JB for instance, if he scores 100 in the next 5 games, will drop 62,000 after round 3, another 28,000 after round 4, 22,000 after round 5. Now in those 3 rounds, you've lost over 100,000, and thats assuming he averages 100, that money should definately be spent on rodan, who will jump heaps in comparison.
Now, this doesn't matter unless like I, you have picked up JB. However, Ball and goodes, Goodwin, the same argument can be made for them.

Does anyone disagree with anything i've said here? i've rounded off the numbers to be sure,....

[m8rix]

Originally Posted by Diceman

Look you can't seperate the two, money equals points. its as simple as that, in fact, you get 1 point per $5152, This is based on averages right. Ie, if you spend $5152, and i spend $5152, and the players we both chose play the same as their average, then we will score the same.

Money and points ARE related, no-one is trying to tell you otherwise. Money does not determin points though, it's the other way around. But when it comes to making a trade decision, base it on money OR points, not both. At the bottom end of the market there is heaps of GUARANTEED money to make at the high end of the market there are heaps of GUARANTEED points up for grabs.
You said your self "it's all based on averages" this is correct, it is a weighted average with more weight being placed on the 3 most recent games. So If you can acknowledge this, how can you now want to trade a top player after only one round when no player even has an average yet?

Originally Posted by Diceman

Big JB for instance, if he scores 100 in the next 5 games, will drop 62,000 after round 3, another 28,000 after round 4, 22,000 after round 5. Now in those 3 rounds, you've lost over 100,000, and thats assuming he averages 100, that money should definately be spent on rodan, who will jump heaps in comparison.

Not true... If JB scores exactly 100 for the next five rounds then his 3 week average after R3 will be 75 thus decreasing in value about 30k. His 3 week average after R4,R5 & R6 will be 100 thus his value will only change a very small amount but I would say he would maintain a value of around 400k. Look at his 2006 stats, if you got rid of him after a poor 44 in round 1 you would be kicking yourself by round 10 his value increased by 66k!
JB in 2006
R1_R2_ R3_ R4_ R5_R6_R7_ R8_ R9_ R10
44 140 100 104 116 68 173 111 146 101

[Diceman]

Yeh, see i'm working off the supercoach data, i assume your on dreamteam, cause brown only scored 33 in supercoach, and he's priced at 723900, with a magic number of 5152

[Dreamteam Mad]

Not sure what people think of this trade scenario. I think both your arguements are valid but points are directly correlated to money therefore higher increase in overall team value means higher overall scores.

Round 1
Chad Cornes 68 (354K) for McPhee 112 (308K) = +46K + 9k (Bank) = 55K

Cornes will have to average 101 for the next two weeks to remain @ 354k

McPhee will have to average 62 for the next two weeks to remain @ 308k

Most likely scenario is McPhee will raise in value more than Cornes hence my overall points gained by the trade is higher.

Round 2
Selwood (96k) for Rodan (126K) = (30K) = 25K (Bank)

Young Gun for High Scoring Young Gun.

What do you guys think?

[peterfitz]

Don't know why people say you shouldn't trade in rd1. I'll be making a ****load of trades in the early weeks.

Just gotta make sure you don't trade the wrong players out. Make sure you don't give up guns and make sure you trade for good players who will perform to your expectations.

A lot of players who didn't go well this week deserve another chance

[peterfitz]

Originally Posted by m8rix

Money and points ARE related, no-one is trying to tell you otherwise. Money does not determin points though, it's the other way around. But when it comes to making a trade decision, base it on money OR points, not both. At the bottom end of the market there is heaps of GUARANTEED money to make at the high end of the market there are heaps of GUARANTEED points up for grabs.
You said your self "it's all based on averages" this is correct, it is a weighted average with more weight being placed on the 3 most recent games. So If you can acknowledge this, how can you now want to trade a top player after only one round when no player even has an average yet?


Not true... If JB scores exactly 100 for the next five rounds then his 3 week average after R3 will be 75 thus decreasing in value about 30k. His 3 week average after R4,R5 & R6 will be 100 thus his value will only change a very small amount but I would say he would maintain a value of around 400k. Look at his 2006 stats, if you got rid of him after a poor 44 in round 1 you would be kicking yourself by round 10 his value increased by 66k!
JB in 2006
R1_R2_ R3_ R4_ R5_R6_R7_ R8_ R9_ R10
44 140 100 104 116 68 173 111 146 101

How do I multi-quote? I tried but couldn't get it to work

I think Dicaman is talking about SC with his $60k drop for JB. I wouldn't think that would be too far off if he averages 100 for the next 2 rounds.

In DT he'd drop by around $40 I'd think but it could be anything as we don't know whether the multiplier for price will change from the original like it did last year.
It could be anywhere between $30-$50k at 75avge from 3 rds for JB

[Dreamteam Mad]

The magic number in afl dreamteam is roughly 3926 based on current player pricing. I'm not sure if this changes for price adjustments.

[Diceman]

Definately peterfitz. You gotta be judicous about it tho your right, like i wouldn't be getting rid or raines saying he didn't do as wel as expected, or monfries or ottens for that matter. Ok so ottens had a shocker, and i doubt he'll be able to play to well for the season, but he was only 15 points off his average. That he scored that against the dogs tho... mind you, i think the doggies are way underrated, and thats with all the talk about them, i actually think their defence is awesome, even with Harris and Grant out. Why isn't monfries getting more time, is sheeds still dirty about that attempted banana last year?

[peterfitz]

Originally Posted by Diceman

Definately peterfitz. You gotta be judicous about it tho your right, like i wouldn't be getting rid or raines saying he didn't do as wel as expected, or monfries or ottens for that matter. Ok so ottens had a shocker, and i doubt he'll be able to play to well for the season, but he was only 15 points off his average. That he scored that against the dogs tho... mind you, i think the doggies are way underrated, and thats with all the talk about them, i actually think their defence is awesome, even with Harris and Grant out. Why isn't monfries getting more time, is sheeds still dirty about that attempted banana last year?

Monfries played around 80% of the game apparently. From what I gather he played mostly in the forward line. It's disappointing as I was expecting him to play a lot more in the middle.
He's actually one of the players who MIGHT be traded next week. We'll see