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Old 10-24-2011, 07:50 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Racehorse favorites beaten

Backed December Draw in the Caulifower Cup & first horse beaten but ran (or was it walked ) home LAST. Backed Helmut in Cox Plate & was beaten on the turn. Will back a bolter in the Melbourne Cup and couldn't care if it comes last.
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Old 10-25-2011, 02:28 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Racehorse favorites beaten

- And you'll probably end up winning, LOL.
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Old 10-25-2011, 09:44 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Racehorse favorites beaten

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scumbagger View Post
Backed December Draw in the Caulifower Cup & first horse beaten but ran (or was it walked ) home LAST. Backed Helmut in Cox Plate & was beaten on the turn. Will back a bolter in the Melbourne Cup and couldn't care if it comes last.
Maybe your onto something there ... I've been "laying favorites" for years ...

The most important thing is to determine why they are "favorites".

If its because of "form" you have a huge opportunity. Horses tend to "peak" & "trough" ... with one proviso avoid the "freaks" until you go to a BBQ and every mug punter knows their names.

The "media" has a huge influence on markets in horse racing ... the "media" understand jack-**** about a horses "real" chance in any race.

Until horses can speak I would only consider three factors

1/ Barrier & Relative weights in any given race.
2/ Track Conditions ... relating to that track on the day for horse & course.
3/ The trainer.

Last edited by TalkingFootball; 10-25-2011 at 09:48 AM.
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Old 10-26-2011, 12:17 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Racehorse favorites beaten

[quote=TalkingFootball;15911]Maybe your onto something there ... I've been "laying favorites" for years ...

The most important thing is to determine why they are "favorites".

Actually it had won its previous 2 starts, well drawn, good trainer BUT was bought to win the Wagga Wagga Cup . Poorest Caulfield Cup field in years.
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Old 10-26-2011, 07:37 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Racehorse favorites beaten

[quote=Scumbagger;15912]
Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingFootball View Post
Maybe your onto something there ... I've been "laying favorites" for years ...

The most important thing is to determine why they are "favorites".

Actually it had won its previous 2 starts, well drawn, good trainer BUT was bought to win the Wagga Wagga Cup . Poorest Caulfield Cup field in years.
Had you backed it in both those starts?

won its previous 2 starts ... all the more reason to lay it hard.

Poorest Caulfield Cup field in years. .... I had a big smile after the race.

PS I not sure 9 is a great draw!!! Barriers 1,2,3 are a great draw.

Last edited by TalkingFootball; 10-26-2011 at 07:40 PM.
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