 07-24-2008, 03:43 PM |
| Rookie Analyst Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 10
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| The last time Essendon and Collingwood met at the MCG the Pies kicked clear in the second and third terms to run away with a 73-point victory in this year’s ANZAC Day clash.
Paul Medhurst was judged best on ground with a six-goal bag that kick-started a run of form that has revitalized his career and has black and white supporters all around Australia singing his praises.
The loss saw Essendon’s form slide and until recently many doubted the decision to stand down club stalwart Kevin Sheedy for the younger Matthew Knights. Few had faith in Knights throughout the season until the Bombers strung together four gutsy wins a row only to suffer a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Richmond last week.
History dictates that Essendon should be favoured here, having won 11 of the 16 encounters between the two teams since James Hird led them to the Flag in 2001.
In those encounters Essendon have managed an average of 99 points to Collingwood’s 90.5, a statistic suggesting that this may be a low scoring encounter. Essendon has scored over 100 just eight times to Collingwood’s 5 (look for under 230, under 200 for even better value in AFL betting). Essendon have tended to finish the stronger of the two teams having won nearly every last quarter in those 17 matches, averaging 26.1 points to Collingwood’s 22.6.
The two sides are very difficult to separate on paper this year despite the fact that Essendon sit in 12th place while Collingwood struggle to hang on to fifth. A loss to North Melbourne last week saw them miss a golden opportunity to give the top four a real nudge.
Collingwood lead Essendon marginally right across the board in kicks, disposals, marks and goals while Essendon have the edge in handballs, testament to Essendon willingness to run the ball. Collingwood have shown this year that they are not afraid of sides that run the ball and boast one of the best tackling records in the game.
Essendon have only managed 95 points per game this year while Collingwood is having one of their best seasons in recent history averaging 113.6 points per game. Few sides have managed to keep the Pies under 100 and when they have it has usually been due to Collingwood’s inaccuracy and unforced errors.
Essendon has been plagued by injury this season with four of their top ball-winners still missing from a side that promised its fans so much in the pre-season and at the start of the year.
Mark McVeigh, Jason Johnson, Dustin Fletcher and Angus Monfries are all still out and the Bombers will desperately need some one to plug the gap left in the backline by Fletcher. Collingwood’s ball magnet Leon Davis will train with squad this week but will be unlikely to line up on Saturday. His replacement John Anthony is proving to be a very handy set of extra hands up front booting four goals straight last week.
Essendon has won 60.7% of games played at the MCG and will hope this trend continues against the Pies. __________________ Andy Morris, Betfair AFL bet journalist |  | | |
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